Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ryan Couture
Lee Higgins
79%
21%
Why
28
Age
Δ 2y
31
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Couture: 54 sig / 2 TD ·
Higgins: 15 sig / 0 TD
Ryan Couture
Lee Higgins
35
Sig strikes landed
36
95
Sig strikes attempted
71
57
Total strikes landed
28
1.7
Takedowns landed
3.1
2.3
Takedowns attempted
6.1
0.50
Knockdowns
0.40
107s
Control time
182s
Method
Decision
27%
KO/TKO
15%
Submission
57%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Ryan Couture
12-5
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Strikeforce Challengers 10
—
Blue corner
Lee Higgins
0-0
Career record
Age
31