Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Brian Bowles
Damacio Page
53%
47%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 4"
66"
31
Age
Δ 2y
28
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Bowles: 19 sig / 1 TD ·
Page: 17 sig / 0 TD
Brian Bowles
Damacio Page
36
Sig strikes landed
40
80
Sig strikes attempted
80
52
Total strikes landed
56
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.9
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
110s
Control time
154s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Brian Bowles
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
Blue corner
Damacio Page
"The Angel of Death"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28