Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Alessio Sakara
Chris Weidman
51%
49%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 6"
78"
30
Age
Δ 3y
27
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Sakara: 27 sig / 0 TD ·
Weidman: 45 sig / 5 TD
Alessio Sakara
Chris Weidman
28
Sig strikes landed
28
68
Sig strikes attempted
68
36
Total strikes landed
37
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.6
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
54s
Control time
90s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Alessio Sakara
"Legionarius"
20-11
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Live: Vera vs Jones
—
Blue corner
Chris Weidman
"The All-American"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27