Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Sam Oropeza
Don Carlo-Clauss
79%
21%
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Oropeza: 32 sig / 1 TD ·
Carlo-Clauss: 6 sig / 0 TD
Sam Oropeza
Don Carlo-Clauss
48
Sig strikes landed
37
108
Sig strikes attempted
98
66
Total strikes landed
55
1.5
Takedowns landed
2.9
2.2
Takedowns attempted
4.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
151s
Control time
132s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
34%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Sam Oropeza
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Age
26
Blue corner
Don Carlo-Clauss
0-0
Career record