Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Igor Gracie
John Salgado
85%
15%
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Gracie: 15 sig / 2 TD ·
Salgado: 8 sig / 0 TD
Igor Gracie
John Salgado
43
Sig strikes landed
35
103
Sig strikes attempted
95
57
Total strikes landed
45
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.6
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
136s
Control time
131s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Igor Gracie
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Age
31
Blue corner
John Salgado
"Greco"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"