Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Marc Stevens
John Cholish
88%
12%
Why
26
Age
Δ 2y
27
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Stevens: 4 sig / 0 TD ·
Cholish: 16 sig / 3 TD
Marc Stevens
John Cholish
45
Sig strikes landed
42
110
Sig strikes attempted
104
62
Total strikes landed
55
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.2
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
165s
Control time
115s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Marc Stevens
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Age
26
Blue corner
John Cholish
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27