Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Valentijn Overeem
Ray Sefo
59%
41%
Why
34
Age
Δ 6y
40
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Overeem: 0 sig / 1 TD ·
Sefo: 3 sig / 0 TD
Valentijn Overeem
Ray Sefo
39
Sig strikes landed
26
82
Sig strikes attempted
53
55
Total strikes landed
38
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.9
0.8
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.80
Knockdowns
0.20
129s
Control time
148s
Method
Decision
53%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Valentijn Overeem
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
Blue corner
Ray Sefo
"Sugarfoot"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
40