Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Shane del Rosario
Lavar Johnson
68%
32%
Why
27
Age
Δ 6y
34
12-2
Career record
Δ 20 pp
19-10
W1
Current streak
W2
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
del Rosario: 24 sig / 1 TD ·
Johnson: 10 sig / 1 TD
Shane del Rosario
Lavar Johnson
32
Sig strikes landed
31
57
Sig strikes attempted
68
34
Total strikes landed
31
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.5
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.40
Knockdowns
0.40
76s
Control time
120s
Method
Decision
25%
KO/TKO
61%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Shane del Rosario
12-2
Career record
Height
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Strikeforce Challengers 9
—
Blue corner
W2
Lavar Johnson
"Big"
19-10
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
82"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
Strikeforce Challengers 11
—
W
Strikeforce Challengers 7
—