Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Andrei Arlovski
Sergei Kharitonov
30%
70%
Why
32
Age
Δ 2y
30
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Arlovski: 13 sig / 0 TD ·
Kharitonov: 21 sig / 0 TD
Andrei Arlovski
Sergei Kharitonov
30
Sig strikes landed
37
81
Sig strikes attempted
78
48
Total strikes landed
54
1.6
Takedowns landed
1.4
2.9
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
138s
Control time
130s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Andrei Arlovski
"The Pitbull"
34-25
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
Strikeforce - Heavy Artillery
—
Blue corner
Sergei Kharitonov
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31