Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Kurt Pellegrino
Gleison Tibau
28%
72%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 0"
71"
32
Age
Δ 4y
27
16-8
Career record
Δ 2 pp
33-15
L1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Pellegrino: 47 sig / 1 TD ·
Tibau: 44 sig / 2 TD
Kurt Pellegrino
Gleison Tibau
28
Sig strikes landed
31
72
Sig strikes attempted
72
48
Total strikes landed
51
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.9
4.7
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
151s
Control time
98s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Kurt Pellegrino
"Batman"
16-8
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin
—
W
UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy
—
Blue corner
L1
Gleison Tibau
33-15
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs P…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Gomi
—