Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Joseph Benavidez
Ian Loveland
83%
17%
Why
27
Age
Δ 1y
28
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Current streak
W1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Benavidez: 48 sig / 5 TD ·
Loveland: 45 sig / 0 TD
Joseph Benavidez
Ian Loveland
36
Sig strikes landed
34
93
Sig strikes attempted
99
51
Total strikes landed
55
1.2
Takedowns landed
2.3
2.5
Takedowns attempted
5.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
80s
Control time
183s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Joseph Benavidez
0-0
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
65"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
Blue corner
W1
Ian Loveland
"The Barn Owl"
19-10
Career record
Height
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP …
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