Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Eric Lawson
Ron Keslar
82%
18%
Why
30
Age
Δ 1y
31
9-6
Career record
Δ 8 pp
11-10
L1
Current streak
L2
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Lawson: 4 sig / 0 TD ·
Keslar: 0 sig / 0 TD
Eric Lawson
Ron Keslar
51
Sig strikes landed
45
103
Sig strikes attempted
101
75
Total strikes landed
65
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.4
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
162s
Control time
167s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Eric Lawson
9-6
Career record
Height
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
Strikeforce Challengers 6
—
Blue corner
L2
Ron Keslar
11-10
Career record
Age
31
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
Strikeforce - Diaz vs. Noons 2
—
L
Strikeforce - Fedor vs. Werdum
—