Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Nate Moore
Nathan Coy
73%
27%
Why
28
Age
Δ 5y
32
8-5
Career record
Δ 4 pp
15-8
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Moore: 5 sig / 1 TD ·
Coy: 12 sig / 3 TD
Nate Moore
Nathan Coy
58
Sig strikes landed
57
139
Sig strikes attempted
119
76
Total strikes landed
81
2.6
Takedowns landed
1.1
4.0
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.40
Knockdowns
0.60
124s
Control time
102s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Nate Moore
8-5
Career record
Height
72"
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
Strikeforce Challengers 8
—
Blue corner
L1
Nathan Coy
"Soulforce"
15-8
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
Strikeforce Challengers 8
—