Light Heavyweight
Trevor Prangley vs Roger Gracie
Strikeforce - Diaz vs. Cyborg
·SAP Center at San Jose
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Trevor Prangley
Roger Gracie
71%
29%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 4"
79"
38
Age
Δ 9y
29
34-12-2
Career record
Δ 11 pp
9-2
L1
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Prangley: 3 sig / 0 TD ·
Gracie: 12 sig / 1 TD
Trevor Prangley
Roger Gracie
27
Sig strikes landed
26
47
Sig strikes attempted
67
34
Total strikes landed
42
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.3
4.3
Takedowns attempted
4.4
0.40
Knockdowns
0.60
322s
Control time
255s
Method
Decision
13%
KO/TKO
63%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Trevor Prangley
34-12-2
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
2 fights · 0-1
Last 2
L
Strikeforce - Los Angeles
—
D
Strikeforce Challengers 6
—
Blue corner
W1
Roger Gracie
9-2
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Strikeforce - Heavy Artillery
—