Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Zhang Tiequan
Jason Reinhardt
53%
47%
Why
33
Age
Δ 9y
41
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Tiequan: 4 sig / 0 TD ·
Reinhardt: 2 sig / 0 TD
Zhang Tiequan
Jason Reinhardt
36
Sig strikes landed
37
78
Sig strikes attempted
74
51
Total strikes landed
55
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.9
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
114s
Control time
150s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Zhang Tiequan
"The Wolf"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
Blue corner
Jason Reinhardt
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
41