Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Mark Hunt
Chris Tuchscherer
15%
85%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 4"
76"
37
Age
Δ 1y
36
13-15-1
Career record
Δ 36 pp
21-5
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Hunt: 14 sig / 0 TD ·
Tuchscherer: 9 sig / 1 TD
Mark Hunt
Chris Tuchscherer
15
Sig strikes landed
34
45
Sig strikes attempted
76
38
Total strikes landed
64
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.7
2.8
Takedowns attempted
3.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
109s
Control time
252s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
51%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Mark Hunt
"Super Samoan"
13-15-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop
—
Blue corner
L1
Chris Tuchscherer
"The Crowbar"
21-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin
—
W
UFC 109: Relentless
—