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Alexander Gustafsson vs James Te Huna

UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch ·Qudos Bank Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Alexander Gustafsson
James Te Huna
65% 35%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 4"
75"
24
Age
Δ 5y
29
19-8
Career record
Δ 5 pp
17-9
W1
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Gustafsson: 4 sig / 1 TD · Te Huna: 6 sig / 1 TD
Alexander Gustafsson
James Te Huna
23
Sig strikes landed
20
40
Sig strikes attempted
40
37
Total strikes landed
45
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.9
1.2
Takedowns attempted
4.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
84s
Control time
290s
Method
Decision
21%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
55%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Alexander Gustafsson

"The Mauler"
19-8
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W UFC 120: Bisping vs Akiyama
—
L UFC 112: Invincible
—
Blue corner
W1

James Te Huna

17-9
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez
—