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Prelims1 Featherweight

Chad Mendes vs Michihiro Omigawa

UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort ·Mandalay Bay Events Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Chad Mendes
Michihiro Omigawa
86% 14%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
26
Age
Δ 9y
35

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Mendes: 56 sig / 4 TD · Omigawa: 18 sig / 0 TD
Chad Mendes
Michihiro Omigawa
49
Sig strikes landed
35
96
Sig strikes attempted
78
67
Total strikes landed
49
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
154s
Control time
102s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
18%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Chad Mendes

"Money"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
Blue corner

Michihiro Omigawa

0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35