Prelims1
Lightweight
Donald Cerrone vs Paul Kelly
UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort
·Mandalay Bay Events Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Donald Cerrone
Paul Kelly
76%
24%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 3"
70"
28
Age
Δ 2y
26
—
Current streak
W1
0
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Cerrone: 37 sig / 3 TD ·
Kelly: 22 sig / 0 TD
Donald Cerrone
Paul Kelly
38
Sig strikes landed
32
82
Sig strikes attempted
70
54
Total strikes landed
52
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.7
1.6
Takedowns attempted
3.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
93s
Control time
209s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
27%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Donald Cerrone
"Cowboy"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
Blue corner
W1
Paul Kelly
15-5
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida
—
L
UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko
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W
UFC 112: Invincible
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