Main
Welterweight
Jake Ellenberger vs Carlos Eduardo Rocha
UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort
·Mandalay Bay Events Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jake Ellenberger
Carlos Eduardo Rocha
87%
13%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
73"
26
Age
Δ 4y
30
32-15
Career record
Δ 3 pp
10-4
W2
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Ellenberger: 25 sig / 3 TD ·
Rocha: 21 sig / 0 TD
Jake Ellenberger
Carlos Eduardo Rocha
24
Sig strikes landed
13
57
Sig strikes attempted
38
51
Total strikes landed
28
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.4
3.6
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.00
207s
Control time
75s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
45%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Jake Ellenberger
"The Juggernaut"
32-15
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko
—
W
UFC 108: Evans vs Silva
—
Blue corner
W1
Carlos Eduardo Rocha
"Ta Danado"
10-4
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 122: Marquardt vs Okami
—