Main
Light Heavyweight
Jon Jones vs Ryan Bader
UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort
·Mandalay Bay Events Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jon Jones
Ryan Bader
83%
17%
Why
84"
Reach
Δ 10"
74"
24
Age
Δ 4y
28
29-1
Career record
Δ 14 pp
24-5
W2
Current streak
W2
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Jones: 20 sig / 2 TD ·
Bader: 5 sig / 0 TD
Jon Jones
Ryan Bader
27
Sig strikes landed
16
54
Sig strikes attempted
62
40
Total strikes landed
41
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.9
3.4
Takedowns attempted
4.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
171s
Control time
134s
Method
Decision
18%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
58%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Jon Jones
"Bones"
29-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
85"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko
—
W
UFC Live: Vera vs Jones
—
Blue corner
W2
Ryan Bader
"Darth"
24-5
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop
—
W
UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez
—