Back to Strikeforce Challengers 13
Catch Weight

Chris Barnhizer vs Karl Willis

Strikeforce Challengers 13 ·Nashville Municipal Auditorium
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Chris Barnhizer
Karl Willis
84% 16%

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Chris Barnhizer
Karl Willis
39
Sig strikes landed
39
87
Sig strikes attempted
86
55
Total strikes landed
51
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.3
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
164s
Control time
157s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
27%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Chris Barnhizer

0-0
Career record
Age
23
Blue corner

Karl Willis

0-0
Career record