Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Alistair Overeem
Todd Duffee
89%
11%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 2"
78"
31
Age
Δ 6y
25
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Overeem: 5 sig / 0 TD ·
Duffee: 2 sig / 0 TD
Alistair Overeem
Todd Duffee
43
Sig strikes landed
34
83
Sig strikes attempted
76
80
Total strikes landed
61
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.3
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
220s
Control time
129s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Alistair Overeem
"The Demolition Man"
0-0
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
Blue corner
Todd Duffee
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25