Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jerome LeBanner
Satoshi Ishii
23%
77%
Why
38
Age
Δ 14y
24
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Current streak
W1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
LeBanner: 10 sig / 0 TD ·
Ishii: 17 sig / 4 TD
Jerome LeBanner
Satoshi Ishii
29
Sig strikes landed
29
42
Sig strikes attempted
75
43
Total strikes landed
50
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.7
3.1
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.80
114s
Control time
158s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
30%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Jerome LeBanner
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
38
Blue corner
W1
Satoshi Ishii
16-8-1
Career record
Height
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
DREAM 16
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