Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Sergei Kharitonov
Tatsuya Mizuno
86%
14%
Why
30
Age
Δ 1y
30
—
Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Kharitonov: 10 sig / 0 TD ·
Mizuno: 4 sig / 0 TD
Sergei Kharitonov
Tatsuya Mizuno
33
Sig strikes landed
29
65
Sig strikes attempted
70
65
Total strikes landed
43
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.5
2.6
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
153s
Control time
111s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
31%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Sergei Kharitonov
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
Blue corner
L1
Tatsuya Mizuno
16-13-1
Career record
Height
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
DREAM 16
—
W
DREAM 15
—