Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Marius Zaromskis
Kazushi Sakuraba
77%
23%
Why
30
Age
Δ 11y
42
—
Current streak
L2
0
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
TKO - Doctor's Stoppage · Round 1
Zaromskis: 10 sig / 0 TD ·
Sakuraba: 11 sig / 0 TD
Marius Zaromskis
Kazushi Sakuraba
36
Sig strikes landed
30
60
Sig strikes attempted
56
52
Total strikes landed
33
1.4
Takedowns landed
2.0
2.3
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
170s
Control time
119s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Marius Zaromskis
"The Whitemare"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
Blue corner
L2
Kazushi Sakuraba
"The Gracie Hunter"
26-18-1
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
42
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
DREAM 16
—
L
DREAM 14
—