Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Josh Thomson
Tatsuya Kawajiri
30%
70%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 2"
69"
32
Age
Δ 0y
33
—
Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Thomson: 14 sig / 0 TD ·
Kawajiri: 18 sig / 6 TD
Josh Thomson
Tatsuya Kawajiri
28
Sig strikes landed
21
61
Sig strikes attempted
39
50
Total strikes landed
40
1.6
Takedowns landed
1.8
2.1
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
160s
Control time
123s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
30%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Josh Thomson
"The Punk"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
Blue corner
L1
Tatsuya Kawajiri
"Crusher"
36-12-2
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
DREAM 15
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