Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Bibiano Fernandes
Hiroyuki Takaya
78%
22%
Why
31
Age
Δ 3y
34
21-3
Career record
Δ 30 pp
22-14-2
W1
Current streak
W2
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Fernandes: 33 sig / 3 TD ·
Takaya: 45 sig / 0 TD
Bibiano Fernandes
Hiroyuki Takaya
38
Sig strikes landed
31
95
Sig strikes attempted
105
46
Total strikes landed
36
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.5
3.6
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.40
Knockdowns
0.50
62s
Control time
79s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
53%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Bibiano Fernandes
21-3
Career record
Height
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
DREAM 13
—
Blue corner
W2
Hiroyuki Takaya
"Streetfight Bancho"
22-14-2
Career record
Height
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
DREAM 16
—
W
DREAM 14
—