Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Charlie Brenneman
Amilcar Alves
73%
27%
Why
30
Age
Δ 7y
22
19-9
Career record
Δ 14 pp
15-13
L1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Brenneman: 26 sig / 3 TD ·
Alves: 10 sig / 0 TD
Charlie Brenneman
Amilcar Alves
25
Sig strikes landed
19
46
Sig strikes attempted
40
59
Total strikes landed
34
2.0
Takedowns landed
1.1
5.4
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
282s
Control time
128s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Charlie Brenneman
"The Spaniard"
19-9
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Gomi
—
Blue corner
L1
Amilcar Alves
15-13
Career record
Height
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
23
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 118: Edgar vs Penn 2
—