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Waylon Lowe vs Willamy Freire

UFC Fight Night: Fight for the Troops 2 ·Fort Hood
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Waylon Lowe
Willamy Freire
23% 77%
Why
30
Age
Δ 7y
24
W1
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Lowe: 15 sig / 4 TD · Freire: 23 sig / 1 TD
Waylon Lowe
Willamy Freire
18
Sig strikes landed
32
45
Sig strikes attempted
62
39
Total strikes landed
49
1.8
Takedowns landed
0.7
4.8
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.00
Knockdowns
0.50
209s
Control time
111s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
25%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Waylon Lowe

17-7 (2 NC)
Career record
Height
67"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop
—
L UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans
—
Blue corner

Willamy Freire

"Chiquerim"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24