Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Will Campuzano
Chris Cariaso
64%
36%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 6"
64"
25
Age
Δ 5y
30
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Campuzano: 62 sig / 0 TD ·
Cariaso: 67 sig / 0 TD
Will Campuzano
Chris Cariaso
26
Sig strikes landed
36
68
Sig strikes attempted
63
44
Total strikes landed
53
2.5
Takedowns landed
1.5
4.0
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
299s
Control time
148s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
25%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Will Campuzano
14-7
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP …
—
Blue corner
Chris Cariaso
"Kamikaze"
0-0
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
65"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30