Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Pat Barry
Joey Beltran
48%
52%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 0"
75"
32
Age
Δ 2y
29
8-8
Career record
Δ 3 pp
17-15
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Barry: 46 sig / 0 TD ·
Beltran: 55 sig / 0 TD
Pat Barry
Joey Beltran
37
Sig strikes landed
44
92
Sig strikes attempted
111
40
Total strikes landed
70
0.3
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.1
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.50
Knockdowns
0.30
42s
Control time
139s
Method
Decision
29%
KO/TKO
65%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Pat Barry
"HD"
8-8
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 115: Liddell vs Franklin
—
Blue corner
L1
Joey Beltran
"The Mexicutioner"
17-15
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop
—
W
UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2
—
W
UFC 109: Relentless
—