Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Mark Hominick
George Roop
72%
28%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 4"
72"
28
Age
Δ 1y
29
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Hominick: 9 sig / 0 TD ·
Roop: 12 sig / 0 TD
Mark Hominick
George Roop
37
Sig strikes landed
35
75
Sig strikes attempted
80
57
Total strikes landed
49
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.7
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
161s
Control time
118s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Mark Hominick
"The Machine"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
Blue corner
George Roop
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29