Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Phil Baroni
Brad Tavares
18%
82%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
35
Age
Δ 12y
23
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Current streak
W1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Baroni: 11 sig / 0 TD ·
Tavares: 22 sig / 0 TD
Phil Baroni
Brad Tavares
13
Sig strikes landed
35
18
Sig strikes attempted
67
35
Total strikes landed
63
0.4
Takedowns landed
2.6
0.8
Takedowns attempted
3.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
93s
Control time
229s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Phil Baroni
"The New York Bad Ass"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
Blue corner
W1
Brad Tavares
22-13
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lidd…
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