Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Dustin Poirier
Josh Grispi
79%
21%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
22
Age
Δ 0y
22
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Poirier: 77 sig / 0 TD ·
Grispi: 16 sig / 2 TD
Dustin Poirier
Josh Grispi
37
Sig strikes landed
32
75
Sig strikes attempted
74
51
Total strikes landed
48
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.4
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
133s
Control time
121s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Dustin Poirier
"The Diamond"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
22
Blue corner
Josh Grispi
"The Fluke"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
22