Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Mike Brown
Diego Nunes
60%
40%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 3"
67"
35
Age
Δ 7y
28
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Brown: 68 sig / 4 TD ·
Nunes: 65 sig / 0 TD
Mike Brown
Diego Nunes
38
Sig strikes landed
38
82
Sig strikes attempted
83
54
Total strikes landed
53
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.2
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
191s
Control time
128s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Mike Brown
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
Blue corner
Diego Nunes
"The Gun"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28