Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Daniel Roberts
Greg Soto
53%
47%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 1"
73"
30
Age
Δ 6y
25
16-7
Career record
Δ 2 pp
10-4
W2
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Roberts: 3 sig / 1 TD ·
Soto: 6 sig / 0 TD
Daniel Roberts
Greg Soto
20
Sig strikes landed
21
47
Sig strikes attempted
50
43
Total strikes landed
45
2.2
Takedowns landed
0.9
3.8
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
245s
Control time
147s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
12%
Submission
49%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Daniel Roberts
"Ninja"
16-7
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez
—
W
UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin
—
L
UFC Live: Vera vs Jones
—
Blue corner
W1
Greg Soto
10-4
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC 118: Edgar vs Penn 2
—
L
UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy
—