Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Brandon Vera
Thiago Silva
38%
62%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 4"
74"
33
Age
Δ 5y
28
15-8
Career record
Δ 8 pp
19-7
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Overturned · Round 3
Vera: 19 sig / 0 TD ·
Silva: 51 sig / 3 TD
Brandon Vera
Thiago Silva
31
Sig strikes landed
31
66
Sig strikes attempted
65
40
Total strikes landed
48
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.1
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
67s
Control time
139s
Method
Decision
17%
KO/TKO
65%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Brandon Vera
"The Truth"
15-8
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Live: Vera vs Jones
—
Blue corner
L1
Thiago Silva
19-7
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 108: Evans vs Silva
—