Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Chris Leben
Brian Stann
71%
29%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 1"
74"
30
Age
Δ 0y
30
23-11
Career record
Δ 1 pp
13-6
W3
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Leben: 7 sig / 0 TD ·
Stann: 30 sig / 0 TD
Chris Leben
Brian Stann
39
Sig strikes landed
27
76
Sig strikes attempted
64
59
Total strikes landed
39
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.9
3.4
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.40
Knockdowns
0.00
184s
Control time
110s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
29%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Chris Leben
"The Crippler"
23-11
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lidd…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz
—
Blue corner
W1
Brian Stann
"All American"
13-6
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko
—
L
UFC 109: Relentless
—