Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Nate Diaz
Dong Hyun Kim
41%
59%
Why
76"
Reach
76"
26
Age
Δ 3y
29
23-13
Career record
Δ 18 pp
23-4-1
W2
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Diaz: 36 sig / 1 TD ·
Kim: 19 sig / 3 TD
Nate Diaz
Dong Hyun Kim
24
Sig strikes landed
39
92
Sig strikes attempted
74
64
Total strikes landed
51
0.6
Takedowns landed
3.6
1.8
Takedowns attempted
5.6
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
113s
Control time
359s
Method
Decision
78%
KO/TKO
8%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Nate Diaz
23-13
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC 118: Edgar vs Penn 2
—
W
UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz
—
Blue corner
W1
Dong Hyun Kim
"Stun Gun"
23-4-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans
—