Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Clay Guida
Takanori Gomi
58%
42%
Why
70"
Reach
70"
29
Age
Δ 3y
32
39-22
Career record
Δ 8 pp
36-14
W2
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Guida: 12 sig / 3 TD ·
Gomi: 14 sig / 0 TD
Clay Guida
Takanori Gomi
31
Sig strikes landed
21
75
Sig strikes attempted
64
47
Total strikes landed
35
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.1
5.9
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
177s
Control time
50s
Method
Decision
17%
KO/TKO
12%
Submission
71%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Clay Guida
"The Carpenter"
39-22
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen
—
W
UFC Live: Vera vs Jones
—
Blue corner
W1
Takanori Gomi
"The Fireball Kid"
36-14
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Gomi
—