🏆 Title fight
Main
Lightweight
Frankie Edgar vs Gray Maynard
UFC 125: Resolution
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Frankie Edgar
Gray Maynard
79%
21%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
29
Age
Δ 2y
32
24-11-1
Career record
Δ 3 pp
14-7-1
W2
Current streak
W2
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 5
Edgar: 95 sig / 3 TD ·
Maynard: 71 sig / 3 TD
Frankie Edgar
Gray Maynard
55
Sig strikes landed
51
151
Sig strikes attempted
161
76
Total strikes landed
64
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.0
5.5
Takedowns attempted
4.1
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
147s
Control time
96s
Method
Decision
61%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Frankie Edgar
"The Answer"
24-11-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 118: Edgar vs Penn 2
—
W
UFC 112: Invincible
—
Blue corner
W2
Gray Maynard
14-7-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 118: Edgar vs Penn 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz
—