Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Joe Doerksen
Dan Miller
95%
5%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 1"
74"
33
Age
Δ 4y
30
51-17
Career record
Δ 10 pp
15-8
L1
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Doerksen: 12 sig / 0 TD ·
Miller: 18 sig / 5 TD
Joe Doerksen
Dan Miller
35
Sig strikes landed
29
83
Sig strikes attempted
75
59
Total strikes landed
46
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.9
1.8
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
117s
Control time
310s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
33%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Joe Doerksen
"El Dirte"
51-17
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop
—
W
UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2
—
Blue corner
W1
Dan Miller
15-8
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
W
UFC 118: Edgar vs Penn 2
—
L
UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans
—
L
UFC 109: Relentless
—