Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Thiago Alves
John Howard
51%
49%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
27
Age
Δ 1y
28
23-16
Career record
Δ 4 pp
24-14
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Alves: 73 sig / 2 TD ·
Howard: 37 sig / 0 TD
Thiago Alves
John Howard
21
Sig strikes landed
30
50
Sig strikes attempted
70
44
Total strikes landed
49
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.0
3.4
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
163s
Control time
105s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
30%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Thiago Alves
"Pitbull"
23-16
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen
—
Blue corner
L1
John Howard
"Doomsday"
24-14
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko
—
W
UFC Live: Vera vs Jones
—