Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Mark Bocek
Dustin Hazelett
66%
34%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
29
Age
Δ 4y
25
12-6
Career record
Δ 7 pp
12-8
L1
Current streak
L2
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Bocek: 9 sig / 1 TD ·
Hazelett: 0 sig / 0 TD
Mark Bocek
Dustin Hazelett
32
Sig strikes landed
28
44
Sig strikes attempted
50
64
Total strikes landed
60
4.3
Takedowns landed
1.6
6.6
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
374s
Control time
116s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Mark Bocek
12-6
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy
—
Blue corner
L2
Dustin Hazelett
"McLovin"
12-8
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen
—
L
UFC 108: Evans vs Silva
—