Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Jesse Bongfeldt
Rafael Natal
52%
48%
Why
30
Age
Δ 2y
28
—
Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Majority · Round 3
Bongfeldt: 53 sig / 2 TD ·
Natal: 13 sig / 5 TD
Jesse Bongfeldt
Rafael Natal
39
Sig strikes landed
31
80
Sig strikes attempted
78
55
Total strikes landed
48
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.5
2.5
Takedowns attempted
3.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
101s
Control time
135s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Jesse Bongfeldt
"Water"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
Blue corner
L1
Rafael Natal
"Sapo"
21-10-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs P…
—