Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Matthew Riddle
Sean Pierson
69%
31%
Why
76"
Reach
76"
25
Age
Δ 10y
35
W2
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Riddle: 35 sig / 0 TD ·
Pierson: 112 sig / 1 TD
Matthew Riddle
Sean Pierson
38
Sig strikes landed
30
101
Sig strikes attempted
68
56
Total strikes landed
55
1.8
Takedowns landed
1.5
3.9
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
204s
Control time
164s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Matthew Riddle
"Deep Waters"
9-3
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
25
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko
—
W
UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy
—
Blue corner
Sean Pierson
"The Punisher"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35