Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
TJ Grant
Ricardo Almeida
81%
19%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
27
Age
Δ 7y
34
22-5
Career record
Δ 13 pp
13-6
W1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Grant: 6 sig / 0 TD ·
Almeida: 48 sig / 6 TD
TJ Grant
Ricardo Almeida
30
Sig strikes landed
18
59
Sig strikes attempted
48
59
Total strikes landed
46
1.9
Takedowns landed
2.8
3.2
Takedowns attempted
5.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.00
194s
Control time
288s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
38%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
TJ Grant
22-5
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop
—
L
UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2
—
Blue corner
L1
Ricardo Almeida
"Big Dog"
13-6
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen
—
W
UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy
—