Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Joe Stevenson
Mac Danzig
77%
23%
Why
70"
Reach
70"
28
Age
Δ 2y
31
33-17
Career record
Δ 6 pp
21-13-1
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Stevenson: 6 sig / 0 TD ·
Danzig: 9 sig / 0 TD
Joe Stevenson
Mac Danzig
28
Sig strikes landed
31
66
Sig strikes attempted
71
56
Total strikes landed
54
2.2
Takedowns landed
1.8
6.9
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
267s
Control time
90s
Method
Decision
66%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Joe Stevenson
"Daddy"
33-17
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez
—
Blue corner
L1
Mac Danzig
21-13-1
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC 115: Liddell vs Franklin
—
W
UFC 109: Relentless
—