Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jim Miller
Charles Oliveira
31%
69%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 3"
74"
27
Age
Δ 6y
21
40-19
Career record
Δ 10 pp
38-11
W3
Current streak
W2
3
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Miller: 1 sig / 1 TD ·
Oliveira: 5 sig / 0 TD
Jim Miller
Charles Oliveira
16
Sig strikes landed
24
53
Sig strikes attempted
54
26
Total strikes landed
24
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.7
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
90s
Control time
76s
Method
Decision
14%
KO/TKO
12%
Submission
73%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Jim Miller
"A-10"
40-19
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs P…
—
W
UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy
—
W
UFC 108: Evans vs Silva
—
Blue corner
W2
Charles Oliveira
"Do Bronxs"
38-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
21
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs P…
—
W
UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko
—